Learning Centre
Clear, sourced guides that explain how event contracts work, what prices really tell you, and the risks to weigh before you use any platform.
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A prediction market price is a probability you can trade. This guide explains how to turn a price into an implied probability, what the spread, volume and liquidity tell you about how far to trust it, and why even a busy market can be wrong.
Prediction markets let people buy and sell contracts tied to whether a future event happens. Because a winning contract pays a fixed amount, its price can be read as the market’s current estimate of how likely the event is. This guide covers how that works, how markets are settled and where the numbers can mislead you.
Interactive explainer
Move the slider to see how an illustrative Yes price maps to a market-implied probability.
An illustrative Yes contract priced at $0.65 corresponds to a 65% market-implied probability before fees and other considerations. If the event happens, it pays $1.00; if not, it pays nothing.
Educational illustration only. This is not live market data or trading advice. Real prices are affected by trading fees, bid and ask spreads and liquidity, and a market-implied probability is an estimate that can be wrong.