Odds on Turnover: Will Lisa Cook Leave the Fed in 2025?

Federal Reserve personnel markets are heating up, with traders closely watching the probability that Governor Lisa Cook departs her position before year-end.

**Modest Departure Odds**

Current pricing shows a 13% chance Cook leaves by September 30th, rising to 31% by December 31st. These relatively low probabilities suggest traders view her position as stable, despite the political pressures that often surround Fed appointments.

**$1 Million in Institutional Interest**

The $1 million trading volume indicates sophisticated market participants are actively hedging against potential Fed composition changes. Personnel turnover can significantly impact monetary policy direction, making these markets valuable for institutional positioning.

**Political and Policy Implications**

Cook, appointed in 2022, has been a consistent voice for accommodative monetary policy. Her potential departure could signal shifts in the Fed's approach to employment mandates and financial stability concerns.

**Watching Internal Dynamics**

These markets often move on insider reporting about Fed dynamics, administration pressure, or personal career decisions. For now, traders see Cook maintaining her position through most of 2025, but acknowledge the inherent uncertainty in political appointments.