Expert analysis, market insights, and educational content about prediction markets and current events.
Polymarket traders give just a 7% chance of a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire before October 2025, with nearly $7M already wagered.
Polymarket traders doubt Putin and Zelenskyy will meet in 2025, pricing the chances at low odds despite global calls for negotiations.
Polymarket traders favor Gavin Newsom at 32% for the 2028 Democratic nomination, with AOC sitting at 11% in early speculation.
Polymarket assigns just 26% odds to a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2025, with $18M reflecting trader skepticism.
Polymarket puts 24% odds on a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting in 2025, with $1M reflecting diplomatic skepticism.
Polymarket shows 95% confidence in Bayrou-related French political timeline by September 30th.