September Fed Cut? Market Sees 25 bps as the Base Case

Federal Reserve watchers are closely monitoring Polymarket's interest rate prediction market, where traders are overwhelmingly betting on a measured 25 basis point cut at the next FOMC meeting.

**81% Probability for Quarter-Point Cut**

The market currently prices an 81% chance of a 25 basis point decrease, with just 5% odds on a more aggressive 50+ basis point move. This pricing reflects trader sentiment that recent inflation progress and softening economic growth warrant a cautious approach rather than emergency action.

**$52 Million in Trading Volume**

With $52 million already traded, this has become one of Polymarket's most closely watched macroeconomic indicators. The substantial volume suggests institutional and sophisticated retail traders are using the platform to hedge positions and express views on Fed policy.

**Data-Dependent Volatility**

Every jobs report, CPI print, and Fed official speech has the potential to move these odds significantly. Recent comments from Fed governors about the need for "measured" policy adjustments appear to align with the market's base case scenario.

The consensus view suggests the Fed will prioritize stability over aggressive stimulus, marking a continuation of their data-dependent approach to monetary policy in an uncertain economic environment.