2028 Democratic Nominee: Traders Put Newsom on Top, AOC in the Mix

With the 2024 election cycle winding down, Polymarket traders are already handicapping the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination — and California Governor Gavin Newsom has emerged as the clear frontrunner.

**Newsom Leads the Pack at 32%**

Current odds show Newsom commanding a 32% probability, reflecting trader confidence in his national profile, progressive credentials, and executive experience. The California governor has built a reputation as a Trump antagonist while governing the nation's most populous state, giving him both liberal bona fides and administrative gravitas.

**AOC Sits in Striking Distance**

Perhaps more surprising is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's 11% showing — a significant position for a House member who would be just 38 years old in 2028. Her strong social media presence, progressive base, and fundraising prowess have clearly caught traders' attention as potential assets in a future primary.

**The Long Game Begins**

With $18 million already traded on this market, bettors are effectively wagering on name recognition, fundraising potential, and where the Democratic coalition may drift post-2024. Expect these odds to fluctuate dramatically based on gubernatorial records, national media exposure, and any VP or cabinet appointments over the next four years.

The early positioning suggests Democrats may be looking for a blend of progressive politics and executive experience — exactly what Newsom offers and what could propel him toward the nomination.