Polymarket Traders Slash Odds of Russia–Ukraine Ceasefire Before October to Just 7%

On prediction platform Polymarket, traders are signaling near-unanimous skepticism that Russia and Ukraine will reach a ceasefire agreement before October 2025.

As of August 30, the market "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?" is pricing just a 7% chance that a truce will be declared in the next month. That's down more than 30 percentage points in recent weeks, reflecting waning optimism amid ongoing fighting and stalled diplomatic efforts.

The market has seen nearly $7 million in trading volume, making it one of Polymarket's most heavily traded geopolitical questions this year. Traders can currently buy "Yes" shares for 7¢ or "No" shares for 94¢, effectively betting on the likelihood of peace talks delivering concrete results.

The decline comes despite periodic speculation about back-channel negotiations. Recent military escalations and hardened rhetoric from both Moscow and Kyiv appear to have fueled pessimism among bettors.

Prediction markets like Polymarket aggregate crowd sentiment into tradable odds, giving observers a real-time view of public expectations. In this case, the overwhelming consensus is that no ceasefire will be reached before October 1, 2025.