Ceasefire This Year? Traders Say 'Unlikely' at 26%

Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts and international pressure, Polymarket traders remain deeply skeptical about the prospects of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire materializing in 2025.

**Pessimistic 26% Probability**

The market assigns just a 26% chance of a comprehensive ceasefire agreement before year-end, reflecting the grinding realities of the conflict and limited progress in peace negotiations. This pricing suggests traders see continued military engagement as the most likely scenario.

**$18 Million Reflects High Stakes**

With $18 million in trading volume, this market has attracted significant attention from geopolitical observers, institutional traders, and those with direct exposure to the conflict's economic impacts. The substantial liquidity indicates this isn't just speculation — real money is backing these probability assessments.

**Battlefield Dynamics Drive Sentiment**

Current odds reflect the entrenched positions on both sides, ongoing military operations, and the absence of credible diplomatic breakthroughs. Any major shift in battlefield dynamics, surprise summit announcements, or third-party mediation efforts could dramatically alter these probabilities.

**Watching for Catalysts**

Traders are particularly sensitive to winter energy dynamics, NATO support levels, and any signs of war fatigue from either side. Until concrete diplomatic progress emerges, the market consensus expects the status quo to persist through 2025.