Face-to-Face in 2025? Market Says 24% for Putin-Zelenskyy Summit

The possibility of a direct meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy continues to captivate Polymarket traders, with current odds reflecting deep skepticism about diplomatic breakthroughs.

**24% Probability for Historic Meeting**

Traders currently assign a 24% chance that the Russian and Ukrainian leaders will meet face-to-face in 2025. This relatively low probability reflects the hardened positions on both sides and the limited diplomatic progress since the conflict began.

**$1 Million Stakes on Diplomacy**

With approximately $1 million traded, this market attracts serious geopolitical observers and those with direct exposure to conflict outcomes. The volume suggests institutional interest in hedging diplomatic scenarios.

**Diplomatic Runway Remains Limited**

The current odds reflect the absence of credible intermediaries, the lack of preliminary agreements, and the continued military escalation. Both leaders have maintained public positions that make direct negotiations appear unlikely.

**Summit Planning Would Reprice Instantly**

Any credible reports of third-party mediation, preliminary talks, or international summit planning would cause immediate and dramatic odds movements. The market remains highly sensitive to diplomatic developments.

**Historical Precedent Matters**

Previous attempts at high-level negotiations early in the conflict collapsed quickly, contributing to trader skepticism about the sustainability of any potential 2025 meeting arrangements.