France Watch: Traders See 95% Chance of Bayrou Timeline Resolution

French political markets are showing extraordinary confidence in a specific timeline outcome, with François Bayrou-related betting reaching near-certainty levels on Polymarket.

**Striking 95% Probability by September 30**

A French politics market referencing François Bayrou shows a remarkable 95% probability for resolution by September 30th. Such high odds typically indicate traders have access to credible information about procedural deadlines or political developments.

**Coalition Arithmetic Drives Confidence**

The near-certain odds likely reflect insider knowledge about French parliamentary dynamics, coalition negotiations, or constitutional procedures that make the specified outcome highly probable within the given timeframe.

**European Political Complexity**

French political markets often move on subtle coalition dynamics, procedural rules, and behind-the-scenes negotiations that may not be immediately apparent to casual observers but are well-understood by political insiders.

**Procedural Deadlines Matter**

The specific September 30th date suggests a constitutional or procedural deadline that makes the market outcome nearly inevitable, explaining the extreme confidence reflected in the 95% probability.

**Institutional Knowledge Premium**

Such high-confidence political markets typically reward traders with deep understanding of French institutional processes and access to reliable political intelligence networks.